This updated tutorial presents key concepts, techniques, and case studies of Quantitative Risk Management in a manner that can be comprehended by newcomers and appreciated by professionals seeking to better understand quantitative methods. With a focus on risk management, new topics include comparing cumulative fleet risk, risk per flight, and risk per flight hour in aviation and suitable aging parameters for other fields.
Risk management begins with risk identification and assessment. Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) provides a data-driven process that is predictive instead of subjectively choosing categories from a red-yellow-green matrix. Some mathematical computations of QRA are complex and can be intimidating to non-mathematicians, but the basic elements and interpretation are fairly comprehensible, so even non-mathematicians can benefit from an understanding of the process. This mathematical complexity can lead to misunderstanding and skepticism so this tutorial presents a stepwise approach for performing QRA and includes lessons learned, case studies, and a comparison of the advantages and disadvantages of quantitative and qualitative methods.?
QRA is based on Life Data Analysis and can accurately predict future risk by analyzing the risk without corrective action (uncorrected risk), and then analyzing the risk with specific mitigating actions (corrected risk). Short term mitigation such as one-time and recurring inspections, reduced service life, shortened maintenance intervals, and more effective inspection methods are often necessary, and a QRA model can be created to perform comparative evaluation of the options. These actions contribute to maintaining a reasonable level of safety until the hazards can be eliminated or sustained below a risk level guideline.?
The data available for analysis is limited so the challenge is to provide accurate risk forecasts with limited data points, and Quantitative Risk Assessment is an appropriate tool. QRA also presents an opportunity to quantify events that might have occurred if corrective action had not been implemented, based on forecasts of the uncorrected and corrected risks and application of a hazard ratio. This in turn can be used in justifying the cost of preventative safety actions and supports the business case for safety.?
This will be a lively interactive tutorial given by two presenters. One is uniquely suited with degrees in mathematics and statistics, with a Ph.D. in Industrial and System Engineering and extensive knowledge of reliability theory, and the other is a user of the methodology who will provide commentary and help explain the complex subject matter to improve comprehension by non-mathematicians.
